January 2024 — Fed Language Drift
January 31, 2024
On January 31, 2024, the FOMC statement scored 13.4 for commitment density and 52.1 for epistemic certainty. The press conference scored 13.4 and 49.9 on the same two measures.
What the statement committed to
Commitment density measures how much of the statement binds the committee to action rather than describing conditions. This meeting reads 13.4, the first reading in this archive.
How certain the statement sounded
Epistemic certainty measures how much certainty the language carries relative to doubt markers (certainty − 0.5×doubt, scaled). This meeting reads 52.1, the first reading in this archive. Higher means more certainty, not more hedging.
Commitment density and epistemic certainty across the trailing meetings. Commitment rises as the language binds the committee to action; certainty rises as certainty markers outweigh doubt markers. This meeting is highlighted.
Proof
This result was sealed in a signed, tamper-evident receipt at the moment it was scored. The receipt below attests to the numbers on this page.
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