January 2024 — Fed Language Drift
January 31, 2024
On January 31, 2024, the FOMC statement scored 13.4 for commitment density and 52.1 for hedging. Against the prior meeting, commitment held roughly steady and hedging held roughly steady. The press conference scored 12.6 and 49.8 on the same two measures.
What the statement committed to
Commitment density measures how much of the statement binds the committee to action rather than describing conditions. This meeting reads 13.4, little changed from 13.2 at the previous meeting.
How much the statement hedged
Hedging measures the uncertainty carried in the language — the conditionals and qualifiers that signal observation over commitment. This meeting reads 52.1, little changed from 51.6 at the previous meeting.
Commitment density and hedging across the trailing meetings. Commitment rises as the language binds the committee to action; hedging rises as it signals uncertainty. This meeting is highlighted.
Proof
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