FOMC archive
Fed Language Drift
The Federal Reserve chooses its words carefully. This tracks what those words actually carry — meeting after meeting, measured rather than interpreted.
Every FOMC statement and press conference holds two separable signals. One is obligation: what the committee commits itself to doing. The other is belief: how certain it is about what it observes. Fed Language Drift scores each meeting on both and lines the results up over time, so the shift shows as a number, not a take. Every score is sealed in a signed, tamper-evident receipt the moment it is produced.
Deontic commitment density
How much of the language binds the committee to action: obligations, pledges, and forward commitments, as opposed to merely describing conditions. Higher means more commitment.
Epistemic hedging
How much uncertainty the language carries: qualifiers, conditionals, and hedges that mark observation rather than commitment. Higher means more hedging.
Commitment density and hedging across the trailing meetings. Commitment rises as the language binds the committee to action; hedging rises as it signals uncertainty. This meeting is highlighted.
Meetings
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