FOMC archive
Fed Language Drift
The Federal Reserve chooses its words carefully. This tracks what those words actually carry — meeting after meeting, measured rather than interpreted.
Every FOMC statement and press conference holds two separable signals. One is obligation: what the committee commits itself to doing. The other is belief: how certain the language is about what it observes. Fed Language Drift scores each meeting on both and lines the results up over time, so the shift shows as a number, not a take. Every score is sealed in a signed, tamper-evident receipt the moment it is produced.
Deontic commitment density
How much of the language binds the committee to action: obligations, pledges, and forward commitments, as opposed to merely describing conditions. Higher means more commitment.
Epistemic certainty
How much certainty the language carries relative to doubt markers: firming language vs. qualifiers and conditionals. Higher means more certainty (not more hedging).
Commitment density and epistemic certainty across the trailing meetings. Commitment rises as the language binds the committee to action; certainty rises as certainty markers outweigh doubt markers. This meeting is highlighted.
The statements name a 2 percent longer-run goal. Forty-eight months of PCE prints against that number.
Meetings
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