May 2024 — Fed Language Drift
May 1, 2024
On May 1, 2024, the FOMC statement scored 14.0 for commitment density and 53.1 for epistemic certainty. Against the prior meeting, commitment held roughly steady and certainty held roughly steady. The press conference scored 13.4 and 50.8 on the same two measures.
What the statement committed to
Commitment density measures how much of the statement binds the committee to action rather than describing conditions. This meeting reads 14.0, little changed from 13.4 at the previous meeting.
How certain the statement sounded
Epistemic certainty measures how much certainty the language carries relative to doubt markers (certainty − 0.5×doubt, scaled). This meeting reads 53.1, little changed from 52.1 at the previous meeting. Higher means more certainty, not more hedging.
Commitment density and epistemic certainty across the trailing meetings. Commitment rises as the language binds the committee to action; certainty rises as certainty markers outweigh doubt markers. This meeting is highlighted.
Proof
This result was sealed in a signed, tamper-evident receipt at the moment it was scored. The receipt below attests to the numbers on this page.
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