Blackhorse SentinelLog in

Fed Drift · prints

The 2 percent target

The Committee names 2 percent PCE inflation over the longer run. This page counts how often the print sat on that number.

This is not a language score. Fed Language Drift measures what the verbs bind the committee to. This page measures the series they named as the goal. Forty-eight months, July 2022 through June 2026. Headline 12-month PCE never printed 2.0. It never got inside two tenths. Core never fell below 2.6.

Headline at 2.0%

0 of 48 months.

Core at 2.0%

0 of 48 months.

Closest headline

Sep 24, 2.26%.

Four-year mean

3.5% headline. Core floor 2.61%.

12-month PCE vs 2% target

12-month percent change in the PCE price index and PCE excluding food and energy. Dashed line is the 2 percent longer-run goal. Source: BEA via FRED (PCEPI, PCEPILFE). Through June 2026, released 30 July 2026.

Closest approaches

MonthHeadlineGap to 2%Core
Sep 242.26%+0.26%2.84%
Apr 252.28%+0.28%2.61%
Mar 252.36%+0.36%2.67%
Aug 242.41%+0.41%2.87%
May 252.46%+0.46%2.78%
Oct 242.48%+0.48%2.99%

Quotes of the goal: FOMC statements. Prints: BEA Personal Income and Outlays, PCE price index. FRED PCEPI and PCEPILFE. Next BEA release 26 August 2026. Dual mandate footnote: this count is inflation only. Back to Fed Language Drift.