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Sentinel Check
Two checks. Fact-check any public take against the market, or Odds check a Fed rate call against next-meeting odds. Not a Blackhorse forecast.
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Put a contested public take next to labeled Polymarket odds. Interactive checks are free. One sealed receipt per email on the public Stables ledger — more seals via write packs.
Someone said the fighting paused — or that it clearly hasn’t.
Many books resolve on a quiet window (e.g. days without qualifying military action), not on whether people call it a “war” or “ceasefire” on TV. Same headlines, different contract.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) · crowd Yes 86.5% · as of 9/13/2026, 8:51:57 PM
Sealing stamps a house signature on the public ledger. First seal is free per email. Drafts stay free and unsigned.
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